Contrary to popular belief, economic development does not necessarily lead to secularisation. Instead, religion often adapts and persists, providing social support, identity, and stability amid uncertainty – while interacting dynamically with states, traditional beliefs, and evolving economic realities.
Editor's note: This episode of VoxDevTalks is also available on Spotify, Apple Podcasts, and YouTube.
In this episode of VoxDevTalks, Sara Lowes, Eduardo Montero, and Benjamin Marx explore how religion and economic development interact in emerging and developing regions. Challenging the idea that development inevitably leads to secular societies, they discuss why religiosity persists or changes, how faiths coexist with traditional beliefs, and the ways religious institutions shape social support, behaviour, and policy. Throughout, they emphasise that religion is dynamic – adapting to incentives, competition, and the state of local institutions.
Secularisation hypothesis: What holds, what doesn’t
The conversation begins by unpacking the long-standing assumption that economic development weakens religion. However, the researchers caution against generalisation. In places like sub-Saharan Africa and former communist countries, survey measures show stable or rising religious practice since the early 1990s. Focusing only on individual worship behaviours – such as weekly attendance – can miss broader institutional influence.
“Just looking at measures of individual faith and practice, such as, for example, how often you go to church, might not give you the full picture.” Marx
Beyond faith: Traditional beliefs persist and adapt
A core theme is that religion is not monolithic. Lowes argues that we must analyse both organised religions and locally rooted traditional beliefs:
“There are lots of different types of belief systems that have existed well before, say, Christianity was introduced or Islam was introduced.” Lowes
In the Democratic Republic of Congo, for example, many Christians also maintain beliefs in ancestral intercession, spiritual causation, and individuals with supernatural powers. These beliefs are not vestigial; they remain socially salient and shape decision-making. Ignoring them obscures the true religious landscape and its consequences for everyday life.
Competition, syncretism, and demonisation
Religious change often unfolds through competition. New entrants can either accommodate local beliefs or confront them. Lowes’ ongoing work in sub-Saharan Africa finds that many churches actively discourage traditional practices:
“If you really want to become a true Christian, you have to forego the set of traditional beliefs that your ancestors have held for generations.” Lowes
At the same time, religions are strategic and adaptive. They respond to incentives – who else is present, what adherents value, and what the state provides. Over time, even formal rules and norms shift as churches seek to attract and retain followers in changing economic and social environments.
Insecurity, migration, and the demand for religious community
Montero highlights why religiosity can be resilient amid development: many people in low-income settings face high volatility – conflict risks, crime, income shocks – and weak public safety nets. In such contexts, religion offers identity, mutual aid, and a buffer against uncertainty:
“Religions can be extremely valuable at providing a source of community, support, and identity when there’s a lot of changes going on in the economy or a face of insecurity.” Montero
Urbanisation intensifies these dynamics. Moving from rural areas to cities disrupts networks and norms. Newcomers often join churches to find community, information, and practical support.
“Churches seem to be a really key place for people to build community, but also to get a job or a place to say or even just basic things like food or money if they face a health shock.” Lowes
These functions are not merely symbolic – they are concrete, targeted responses to everyday risk.
Behavioural change, social networks, and informal insurance
The episode surveys evidence from experiments on how religious membership shapes behaviour and preferences. Churches mobilise resources – food, housing, job referrals – and reinforce cooperative norms through dense networks. Joining a congregation can alter one’s social circle, shifting beliefs and behaviours over time:
“There’s definitely evidence that as people join a church, their beliefs tend to change and become more in line with the rest of the kind of social group that they join.” Montero
Importantly, churches’ rules are not fixed. They evolve with local economies and member needs, reflecting a feedback loop between religious institutions and the communities they serve.
Religion and the state
Religious organisations often operate in domains typically associated with the state – welfare, health, and education – especially where public capacity is limited.
“Of course, it’s not always clear whether religious institutions take over these functions because the state is weak, or whether the state is weak because the expansion of the state historically and the build-up of state capacity has been constrained by the existence of these powerful and influential religious actors. And so in many ways, the equilibrium that we observe today is the outcome of really long historical processes in which the state and religious organizations have been competing for influence over many centuries.” Marx
In some places, faith-based schools compete with public schools; elsewhere, ministries of religious affairs embed religion in governance. These arrangements can be necessary for policy traction.
Policy implications: Engage with beliefs, avoid unintended harms
A recurring message is that policy design ignoring religion risks backfiring. Programmes in health, education, or social protection should account for how people interpret illness, causation, and risk.
“So if you think disease is caused by spiritual origins, because you've had some sort of bad incident with a neighbour or something, then you may not go to a doctor when you're feeling ill, you may go to a traditional healer who can address these types of spiritual ailments.” Lowes
Efforts to expand ‘modern medicine’ must therefore grapple with local religious and cultural logics to be effective.
The researchers also discuss the potential for unintended consequences when policies run against entrenched identities and values. Marx points to evidence that attempts to suppress religious expression can provoke backlash – such as increased school dropout among affected groups – underscoring the need for sensitivity to local preferences and norms.
“In developing contexts, if we want to like not think about religion, we’ll often miss a big part of how people interpret the world and see the world. And so, in some ways, assuming people are always secular and don't have religious beliefs, will give us an incorrect view of the way people think, and programmes and policies might be less effective.” Montero
Key takeaways:
- Development does not uniformly produce secular societies; in many regions, religiosity remains steady or rises, and institutional religious influence persists even when personal practice shifts.
- Traditional beliefs coexist with organised religions and continue to shape choices, identities, and policy responses; overlooking them distorts our understanding.
- Religion provides identity, mutual aid, and informal insurance in volatile environments – especially during rural-to-urban migration and where state capacity is weak.
- Religious rules and organisational strategies adapt to local competition, member needs, and state presence; they are dynamic institutions, not static doctrines.
- Effective policy must engage with religious landscapes to avoid unintended harms and leverage existing community infrastructures for better outcomes.