This week we featured research on debt, inequality, conflict, government and more!
This week we announced our next VoxDevLit launch event. On Thursday December 4th (14:00 GMT), Senior Editor Abhijeet Singh will outline the key takeaways for policy from research on education technology interventions. Register here.
In the early 2000s, domestic-owned firms in China could only trade directly if their registered capital exceeded an official cut-off. Yunong Li, Yi Lu, and Jianguo Wang find that firms responded by increasing their reported registered capital to just above the line, gaining the right to trade which in turn led to substantial productivity gains over time via ‘learning by exporting’.
Although machine learning models using mobile phone data can make poverty targeting faster and more cost-effective, traditional survey-based methods remain more accurate. The optimal approach therefore depends on striking the right balance between cost, accuracy, and programme scale. Emily Aiken, Anik Ashraf, Joshua Blumenstock, Raymond Guiteras, Ahmed Mushfiq Mobarak, and Nicole Hu discuss.
In India, Yatish Arya and Apurav Bhatiya study the ‘rally around the flag’ effect. Specifically, they examine the electoral impact of conflict exposure, finding increased support for incumbents only when leaders and media make soldier deaths politically salient.
In this week’s episode of VoxDevTalks, Leander Heldring explores how governments emerge, evolve, and succeed. The conversation centres around his forthcoming chapter in the Handbook of Political Economy, which re-examines long-held theories of state formation using historical, anthropological and economic evidence.
Africa’s total public debt has risen more than fourfold since the early 2000s, but just as important as the increase in debt volumes is the shift in structure. A new open-access dataset covering more than 50,000 loans and securities issued by 54 African countries reveals that African governments now raise more than half of their financing at home, reversing decades of dependence on external lenders. Mark Manger, Ugo Panizza, Niccolò Rescia, Christoph Trebesch, and Ka Lok Wong warn that the line between financial deepening and financial repression can be thin.
In India, Namrata Kala and Madeline McKelway devise a novel approach to boosting female labour force participation: developing women’s communication skills so they can persuade their husbands to allow them to work. This led to substantial and sustained increases in women’s job uptake and earnings – at low cost.
Clément S. Bellet and Eve Colson-Sihra find that inequality pushes poor households in India to sacrifice nutrition for ‘little luxuries’, reshaping basic needs and worsening malnutrition. The implications for poverty programmes are large.
Zara Liaqat and Karrar Hussain examine how a large-scale terrorist attack affected the trade patterns of firms exporting from Pakistan. They find that the shock had uneven impacts across firms and products, with more pronounced effects among smaller businesses.
Elsewhere in development, a busy week of updates:
- Make sure to check out the Export Boom Atlas. A fantastic interactive resource where you can explore the playbooks behind 82 export booms in emerging economies since 1995.
- The end of progress against extreme poverty? by Max Roser on Our World in Data.
- The Job Market Series continues on the World Bank's Development Impact Blog. This week, articles cover daycare, wages, women's work, and more.
- Jonathan Beynon on CGD: We All Know That Developed Countries Are Responsible for Climate Change, Right? Wrong!
- Also on CGD, Han Sheng Chia outlines some practical opportunities for short-term AI expansion in Africa.
- Ken Opalo on COP30: policymaking needs a developmentalist makeover.
- Open Philanthropy is now Coefficient Giving. Alexander Berger has outlined their work so far, and plans for the future.
And some events we'd highly recommend:
- GiveWell are hosting an event (December 4th) on their work tracking, and responding to, the impacts of recent cuts. Register here.
- Registrations are now open for the CSAE Conference 2026. 2026 will be the 40th anniversary of this amazing conference!