What can 50 years of policy research tell us about the future of food (in)security?
Editor’s note: This episode of VoxDevTalks is also available on Spotify, Apple Podcasts, and YouTube.
In this episode of VoxDevTalks, host Tim Phillips is joined by Johan Swinnen and Purnima Menon from the International Food Policy Research Institute (IFPRI) to discuss IFPRI’s landmark 2025 Global Food Policy Report, which reviews 50 years of progress and setbacks in global food systems.
“We see four decades, really, from the middle of the 1970s until about a decade ago, of unprecedented improvements in food security, reductions in poverty. What we also see is the last decade has been seeing a reversal of that.” Swinnen
The discussion explores how food systems have evolved, the meaning of ‘agrifood’, and what must be done to build resilience, inclusiveness, and sustainability in the decades to come.
From a global food crisis to globalisation
The conversation begins with a historical perspective. The 1970s were marked by a world food crisis, triggered by price spikes linked to the oil shock. Swinnen notes that the crisis “really triggered a big rethinking of how we should look at food problems in the world and what the role of policy was in changing that.”
The decades that followed saw sweeping globalisation and liberalisation. In the 1980s and 1990s, countries like China shifted from heavily state-controlled systems to more open, trade-oriented markets. This liberalisation contributed significantly to poverty reduction and food security improvements.
In recent years, geopolitical tensions, climate change, and new forms of market instability have challenged these earlier gains. Export restrictions, tariffs, and weakened multilateral institutions such as the WTO have introduced new vulnerabilities.
Building resilience across the food system
Resilience is a central theme of IFPRI’s report. Menon stresses that resilience must be seen across the entire system: “It runs end to end in the food system, and that means we need to find solutions at every one of those points.”
The report frames resilience in three layers:
- Prevention: Addressing root causes such as climate mitigation and food system reforms.
- Preparation: Providing data, forecasting shocks, and equipping producers and consumers to adapt.
- Response: Using social protection, insurance systems, and targeted interventions to cushion the impacts of shocks.
Innovations highlighted include solar-powered cold storage for horticulture, adaptive safety nets for women in conflict settings, and nutrition-preserving interventions for children during climate shocks.
Inclusion and equity: Who benefits from food systems?
Resilience, however, cannot be considered without inclusiveness.
“Our work has really focused on understanding differences in how women, youth, and many other actors in the food system, who may often be vulnerable and marginalised in societies, to really understand the ways in which they benefit across the food system.” Menon
Examples include:
- Examining women’s empowerment in agriculture and markets.
- Analysing gendered land tenure rights.
- Designing social protection programmes that adapt to reach the most vulnerable in crises.
Indices like the Women’s Empowerment in Agriculture Index and the Food Systems Countdown provide tools to measure inclusiveness alongside efficiency. Swinnen and Menon highlight that policy must move beyond aggregate productivity to ensure food systems support equity, sustainability, and livelihoods.
Urbanisation, aspirations, and changing diets
Urbanisation is another major trend reshaping agrifood systems.
“The distance to urban markets is a really very important determinant of productivity, of access to inputs, of the nature of the farm.” Swinnen
Infrastructure, transport, and information flows have changed dramatically over 50 years, altering how rural producers link to city markets. At the same time, urban diets bring distinct challenges. While food is generally more abundant in cities, affordability and nutrition for the urban poor remain critical concerns.
“Social protection doesn’t work the same way [in urban areas]. You have migrant populations. You have very time-stressed families… diets and the ways in which they are shaped in urban areas can be quite different.” Menon
Urban settings also influence rural aspirations, which can lead to shifting dietary preferences.
Food insecurity in conflict zones
The discussion explores the problem of food insecurity in fragile and conflict-affected regions, highlighting its growing severity. This is especially pertinent given the growing number of displaced people, which has risen from 40 to 100 million in the past 10–15 years.
“You see the most severe forms of child malnutrition in fragile and conflict-affected settings… There are very long-term implications of being affected by malnutrition in deep ways at very critical points of time.” Menon
Research on the Dutch famine indicates that malnutrition during the first 1,000 days of life can have DNA-level impacts that persist across generations. Protecting vulnerable populations in conflicts, therefore, is not just about immediate survival – it is about safeguarding the future of societies.
Policy lessons: Best and worst scenarios
Reflecting on the policy landscape, Swinnen and Menon point to both positive and negative lessons.
Best case scenarios involve policymakers recognising food insecurity as central to the global agenda, coordinating efforts, and investing strategically with evidence-based guidance.
“Our best-case scenario is really when people are engaging with the knowledge community, with the researchers, saying: tell us what the best things are that we can do here.” Menon
Worst case scenarios include trade restrictions that exacerbate food price volatility, rapid cuts to aid budgets, and weak institutions that fail to deliver protection where it is most needed.
While COVID-19 tested food value chains, supply chains displayed surprising adaptability, showing that resilience is possible when both public and private actors innovate under pressure.
Innovation, investment, and global cooperation
The conversation concludes on a cautiously optimistic note. The last 50 years saw remarkable achievements in food security, but recent reversals highlight urgent needs for reinvestment, innovation, and renewed cooperation.
“We should not diminish the major strides that humanity has made in this area of food security. But at the same time, the numbers of the last decade are really worrisome.” Swinnen
Menon adds that new innovation systems in emerging economies, combined with international collaboration, offer hope. Decentralised research, locally tailored solutions, and stronger links between evidence and policy will be critical to shaping resilient and inclusive food systems for the next half century.