Critical minerals and economic development in Africa

In this VoxDev webinar, co-hosted with IGC, Colin Buckley, Paul Collier, Kusobile Kamwambi, Marit Kitaw, Amir Lebdioui and Shahrukh Wani discuss the role of critical minerals in Africa’s development. The conversation highlights differing views on whether these minerals can unlock sustainable economic opportunities for African countries or whether their benefits are often overstated and fraught with risks.

Questioning the opportunity: Critical for whom?

Lebdioui offers a cautionary perspective, urging a more critical examination of the widely held assumption that critical minerals present a unique opportunity for Africa. 

“Who are they critical to? I think we really have to unpack this notion of criticality, which is highly dynamic across time and space. What is critical today as a resource might not be critical tomorrow.” Amir Lebdioui

Lebdioui points out that global demand can shift with technological developments, and mineral dependency can expose countries to new vulnerabilities. He stresses the importance of “technological foresight capabilities” and notes that countries should carefully evaluate which minerals offer real potential for long-term value.

Continental strategies and regional collaboration

Kitaw reflects on Africa’s longstanding efforts to reform the minerals sector, particularly through the Africa Mining Vision and the newer Africa Green Minerals Strategy. She highlights that these frameworks focus on securing more value on the continent and encouraging regional cooperation.

“We need… deliberate policies, institutional coordination, and that’s when you attract investments that are responsible.” Marit Kitaw

Kitaw points to initiatives such as the DRC-Zambia Special Economic Zone for battery precursors as examples of efforts to move beyond raw exports. However, she acknowledges that challenges remain, particularly around fragmented regional policies and limited harmonisation.

Zambia’s policy approach and local value addition

Providing a national government view, Kamwambi outlines Zambia’s current strategy for managing its mineral wealth. Zambia’s approach includes four priorities: improving access to affordable capital, promoting advanced skills and technology transfer, increasing local value addition, and building partnerships of equals.

She explains that Zambia is making infrastructure investments and formalising small-scale mining to support local participation.

“Mostly, as government, our role is to create a conducive environment for businesses to thrive.” Kusobile Kamwambi

Financing and development trade-offs

Buckley reflects on how development finance institutions (DFIs) consider investments in critical minerals. He notes that balancing commercial viability, development impact, and supply chain security is complex.

Buckley points out that infrastructure investments, such as energy and transport, may offer the most widespread benefits, particularly when they create systems that can support multiple sectors. He adds that DFIs often find the greatest development impact in supporting infrastructure rather than extraction alone. 

“Why this area is attractive to DFIs is, not only do you directly enable the extraction, but you have a host of spillover effects and broader systems effects.” Colin Buckley

Managing expectations and diversifying growth

Collier brings attention to the need for governments to manage public expectations about the financial benefits of mineral extraction. He suggests that large revenue figures can sometimes mask the relatively modest per-person benefits.

He emphasises the importance of using revenues effectively, particularly to build functional cities and invest in skills that can support long-term diversification. 

“[Africa’s] got to somehow go from natural resources to jobs. And we know that that won’t be generated in the natural resources sector itself.” Paul Collier

Lessons from Chile: Moving beyond resource dependence

Paul Collier highlights Chile’s experience as a cautionary example. Chile once depended heavily on natural nitrate exports, but when synthetic alternatives emerged, the market collapsed. Chile later diversified, using copper revenues to build new industries like salmon farming.

"Extract the minerals only if you’ve got enough effective institutions to build revenues out of them."  Paul Collier

Collier views natural resources as a starting point, not a long-term growth plan. He suggests African countries should focus on using mineral revenues to invest in skills, infrastructure, cities, and diversified economies that can thrive beyond extraction.

Policy reflections and evolving partnerships

The panel broadly recognises that securing long-term benefits from critical minerals will likely depend on strategic planning, policy coordination, and meaningful regional collaboration. The need for deliberate, country-led policies and careful risk management is raised throughout the discussion.

Kitaw stresses that African strategies like the Africa Green Minerals Strategy are designed to centre African priorities and define criticality from the continent’s perspective.

“This Green Minerals Strategy is very specific… For example, if you want copper, what you need to do and where to get it, what kind of energy you need, what kind of skills, technology you need, where you can source it, how you can do joint ventures is very elaborate, very specific. And then you have to, of course, drill it down to countries. But you know, it's really needs some kind of approach that is focused, deliberate” Marit Kitaw

Closing reflections: The role of critical minerals in development

In closing remarks, panellists share key takeaways:

Lebdioui underscores the importance of flexibility.

“Value addition strategies must have embedded institutional mechanisms to correct, adjust, evaluate, and change strategy accordingly, given that markets are changing, regulations might move, technologies might get disrupted.” Amir Lebdioui

Kamwambi highlights the need for continued investment in skills, local processing, and equitable partnerships, adding:

“The more we export raw materials, the more we export jobs.” Kusobile Kamwambi

Kitaw reiterates the importance of regional collaboration and purposeful policy:

“We really need deliberate policies and togetherness.” Marit Kitaw

Buckley suggests that infrastructure may offer the most balanced pathway for DFIs, noting that extractives can still play a useful role in public revenue generation. While Collier emphasises the importance of clear government communication to manage expectations (by breaking down total figures in the billions to monthly per person amounts) and focus on jobs and skills to build the foundation for future growth.

The discussion reflects both optimism and caution, highlighting that Africa’s mineral wealth may offer opportunities, but success will depend on careful planning, regional cooperation, and long-term investment in people and institutions.