This week we featured research on conflict and development, foundational learning and more...
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On Thursday September 11th (15:00 UK), Santiago Tobón and Maria Micaela Sviatschi will outline the key takeaways for policy from their forthcoming VoxDevLit on the roots and development impacts of organised crime. Register here.
You might have noticed a theme to this week's content. That's because we teamed up with CEPR's Reducing Conflict and Improving Performance in the Economy (ReCIPE) programme to release a series of articles on the economics of conflict – see the full list here.
Conflict has become one of the most pressing challenges for policymakers worldwide. Once a niche subject in economics, the study of armed conflict has rapidly expanded into a core discipline that interacts heavily with development economics. In this week’s episode of VoxDevTalks, Dominic Rohner and Oliver Vanden Eynde speak about the key takeaways from a series of ReCIPE pathfinding papers that summarise what we have learned from research on conflict, and the key questions which remain unanswered.
Armed conflict exacerbates gender inequality, but women are not just victims – they are also agents of change. Siwan Anderson and Maria Micaela Sviatschi explain.
Extreme weather and the green transition are reshaping global conflict. Oliver Vanden Eynde and Juan Vargas summarise the evidence on this trend and explore how policy can respond.
Many poor, ethnically divided societies are caught in an ‘ethnic growth trap’, where conflict, low public investment, and political economy dynamics reinforce each other, hindering development. Saumitra Jha provides historical examples revealing that inter-ethnic economic cooperation and innovative financial mechanisms can realign incentives, reduce conflict, and promote sustained prosperity.
With violent conflict intensifying globally, Lisa Hultman and Salma Mousa illustrate how bridging micro-level dynamics of trust and intergroup relations with macro-level institutional and international efforts is essential for achieving lasting peace.
Laura Mayoral and Hannes Mueller explain that inclusive institutions are key to sustaining peace – shaping incentives, deterring violence, and preventing cycles of fragility.
Elena Esposito and Austin L. Wright present evidence showing that public policies – ranging from education and therapy to social protection, aid, and refugee support – can reduce violence by reshaping incentives, though effectiveness in fragile contexts remains uncertain.
A core challenge in development economics is generalising country-specific findings across diverse contexts. Can a data-driven classification of conflict types help bridge the gap between deep case knowledge and broader comparative insight? Dominic Rohner, Oliver Vanden Eynde, and Emma Verhille discuss.
In fragile and conflict-affected situations (FCS), weak institutions, chronic instability, and repeated shocks have stalled growth for many years. Samuel Hill, Jeetendra Khadan, and Peter Selcuk (not as part of ReCIPE, but highly linked) outline the need for bold reforms and sustained global backing in FCS economies – potentially harnessing untapped resources and demographic potential to drive lasting, inclusive development.
Alongside this focus on conflict, we also featured new modelling which shows that cuts to global education funding will forgo at least $100 billion in lifetime earnings. Supporting national governments to leverage domestic financing to improve foundational learning should be a priority for the development assistance that remains, given that evidence-based education solutions offer huge returns. Noam Angrist, Pia Rebello Britto, Stefan Dercon, Michelle Kaffenberger, Dean Karlan, and Benjamin Piper discuss.
Elsewhere in development:
- Ken Opalo writes - There will be no economic takeoff in Africa without lots of large (private sector) firms.
- On the Asterisk Magazine, Oliver Kim discusses all things measuring GDP.
- Han Sheng Chia, Temina Madon, Sid Ravinutala and Donald Lobo outline four investments funders can make to raise the bar on AI evaluation.
- Anton Korinek has an excellent update to his series of review papers on using AI for economic research.
- Our very own Emaan Siddique has a new substack post on the economics of polygyny.
- David McKenzie summarises what we know about attrition in surveys in developed country field experiments.